The reverse scenario — AGI-driven power inflation could pull a credit crunch forward (probability 20-25%)
| Date | 2026-10-09 |
|---|---|
| Category | Energy & Power |
| Judgement | Refutes |
| Gauge weight | 1 / 3 |
| Source | Sampo–Gemini AGI debate record, 2026-10-09 (reverse scenario discussion; PJM auction claim explicitly unverified in the record) |
Summary
In the October 9 debate, the reverse scenario was put at 20-25% probability: a surge in power prices passing through into structural inflation would pin the Fed to holds or hikes, bringing a credit crunch before the maturity wall. The PJM auction claim of an 800% surge cited in support was explicitly marked unverified in the record.
A/B Impact Analysis
This item records the path by which a physical bottleneck — power — could overturn Scenario A's timetable. Data-centre demand pushing power prices up is itself Scenario A demand evidence, but the moment it passes through into inflation, the rate path flips to B. One core figure behind it is unverified, so the weight is low. The designated real-time discriminators are PJM capacity auctions and pass-through into CPI and PPI energy items; until checked, this is a scenario-design item only.