Financing-watch framework finalised — a yellow card needs 2 of 3 legs at once; currently 0/3
| Date | 2026-10-14 |
|---|---|
| Category | Macro & Rates |
| Judgement | Neutral |
| Gauge weight | 3 / 3 |
| Source | Financing-watch framework finalised in Sampo–Gemini debate, 2026-10-14 (debate brief: framework finalised 2026-10-14, currently 0/3 legs) |
Summary
The framework finalised on October 14, 2026 escalates an alert only when at least two of three legs hold at once: CFO statements, an actual CapEx guidance cut, and credit/rate tripwires. The tripwires include the 10-year touching 5.50%, 60 consecutive closes at or above 5.00%, and HY OAS at or above 400bp; at adoption, 0 of 3 legs were met.
A/B Impact Analysis
This item fixes in advance, in numbers, what Scenario B would require. It is a discipline against shaking the thesis on a single wobbling gauge — and equally a promise not to delay moving toward B if two legs stand at once. The daily repetition of 0/3 since then is itself a cumulative record favourable to A, but the framework is neutral. The October 27-29 earnings window is its first full judging window.