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FOMC hold priced at about 90% for October 27-28; a December hike at about 78-80%

Date2026-10-26
CategoryMacro & Rates
JudgementNeutral
Gauge weight2 / 3
SourceFOMC October 27-28 meeting expectations as recorded in morning market record, 2026-10-26

Summary

As recorded on October 26, the market priced a hold at the October 27-28 FOMC at about 90%, and a December hike at about 78-80%. The pre-agreed trigger was that guidance holding together with no FOMC hike would move the gauge to 55:45 for Scenario A.

A/B Impact Analysis

For the imminent meeting this leans toward Scenario A's trigger condition, but a December hike priced at 78-80% means Scenario B pressure has been deferred a month, not removed. The item is therefore neutral. Judgment must be mechanical, on the trigger text, combining the meeting outcome with the same week's Big-4 guidance — not on expectations. The purpose of logging it is to keep expectations and outcomes separate.

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