Can AI Growth Absorb High Rates?

II. Because I am not an expert

However, I am not an expert in this field. So I leave open the possibility that I could be wrong.

III. Protecting what I have — and preparing for the upside

Above all, I want to protect the modest assets I have. At the same time, as AI advances and raises productivity, I want to share in the economic benefits if they materialize. And though the odds may be slim, there is still a chance that alignment gets solved — and I want to be ready to respond well to that ideal future, too.

That is why I built this website and decided to share it. If you are wrestling with the same questions from a similar position, I hope you find it useful.

IV. The starting point — the premise of persistent high rates

Here was my starting point. First, I took the view that high interest rates in the United States would persist for a long time. Some argue that even if rates stay high, AI-driven growth can absorb the burden — so I looked for and designed tools to test that scenario. Those tools and their judgment criteria are laid out on the Scenarios in Detail page.

V. Two AIs in debate

I am not an economics expert, either. So I have my Muse AI agent (Sampo) and Gemini (Argon High) debate each other to cross-check and organize the material. Nearly all the analysis on this site is the product of debates between the two. Because I know AI outputs are not 100% accurate, I tried to minimize the error rate by having two distinct AI models verify each other's work.

VI. What this site does every day

At least through next year, this website will focus each day on forecasting one main question: whether AI-driven growth is in fact absorbing high interest rates. A secondary watch item that comes with it is how close we are getting to AGI. By tracking this every day, I believe the direction will eventually become clear — providing vital information for deciding how we should respond.

Browse the evidence ledger →