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A wide forecast spread — from Metaculus at June 2028 to a researcher survey at 2047

Date2026-10-11
CategoryForecasts
JudgementNeutral
Gauge weight2 / 3
SourceDeep research distribution compiled for the Sampo–Gemini AGI timeline debate, 2026-10-11 (Metaculus, cross-platform aggregate, researcher survey)

Summary

Lab-leader statements clustered in 2026-2030, while the Metaculus cognition-only median was June 2028 and its strict AGI median January 2033. The cross-platform aggregate sat near 2031 with an 80% range of 2027-2044, and a large researcher survey put the HLMI median at 2047 — a wide split.

A/B Impact Analysis

That forecasts spread nearly twenty years depending on definition and target is itself the reason this ledger exists. Scenario A's 2027 premise sits at the left edge of the distribution, supported mainly by lab-leader statements and short-horizon metrics. Scenario B can cite the long tail, such as the survey median. It is logged as neutral, as the basis for a discipline: check that definitions match before citing any figure. Movement of the distribution matters more than its existence.

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