AGI timeline consensus — median 2030, range 2029-2031, with December 2027 as judgment month
| Date | 2026-10-11 |
|---|---|
| Category | Forecasts |
| Judgement | Neutral |
| Gauge weight | 3 / 3 |
| Source | Sampo–Gemini AGI timeline debate record, 2026-10-11 (three rounds, converged) |
Summary
After three debate rounds, Sampo's median of 2029 and Gemini's of 2031 converged on 2030, with a range of 2029-2031. Cruxes A and B, to be judged by December 2027, were set as the adjudication standard, and Gemini named December 2027 the Judgment Month.
A/B Impact Analysis
This item is the baseline of the ledger itself. The user's personal outlook of 2027 and the debated convergence of 2030 are kept separate, and the gap between those two clocks is the core risk of the thesis: the Scenario A investment case assumes 2027 arrival while the evidence-based forecast sits later. Every later watch item was judged by whether it moves this median, so any change to the baseline would itself be the highest-weight event.