HY OAS at 340bp — widening 13bp in a day, but still below the 400bp tripwire
| Date | 2026-10-26 |
|---|---|
| Category | Macro & Rates |
| Judgement | Refutes |
| Gauge weight | 1 / 3 |
| Source | Morning market record, 2026-10-26 (HY OAS as recorded in Sampo–Gemini morning debate) |
Summary
The October 26 record put HY OAS at 340bp, widening 13bp in a day. It extends a directional drift through October from 316bp to 323bp and then 331bp.
A/B Impact Analysis
By direction alone this is a small Scenario B refutation signal, since steadily widening credit spreads are the classic path by which high rates begin to transmit. By level, however, it remains well short of the financing-watch tripwire at 400bp and the 450-500bp danger zone, and leg (iii) is not triggered. It is logged as refutation at low weight. The speed of widening is the gauge to watch before the level itself.