Meta reiterates $135-145B CapEx guidance — not a cut
| Date | 2026-10-26 |
|---|---|
| Category | Capital Expenditure |
| Judgement | Supports |
| Gauge weight | 3 / 3 |
| Source | Meta Platforms — CapEx guidance reiteration reporting, recorded in Sampo–Gemini morning debate, 2026-10-26 |
Summary
The October 26, 2026 morning debate confirmed Meta had reiterated CapEx guidance of $135-145B. Coming alongside a large equity raise, it was recorded as pressing ahead with investment, not retrenchment.
A/B Impact Analysis
This is the most direct support in the circuit-breaker test for Scenario A. Whatever the debate over how it is funded, the spending plan itself holding keeps AI infrastructure demand visibility intact. Scenario B would need a later quarter where this guidance is actually cut; the current record shows the opposite. It must be read paired with the same-day dilutive raise, since separating the two exaggerates either side. What matters is the sequence itself: the reiteration came on the very same day as the large financing announcement. That day's debate concluded there was no basis anywhere in the record to read a change in funding method as a retreat in spending intent, and that is the core ground for the supporting judgment.