Can AI Growth Absorb High Rates? A 18:21 한국어
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TSMC raises guidance and holds capex; ASML sold out for 2027-28

Date2026-10-16
CategoryCompute
JudgementSupports
Gauge weight3 / 3
SourceTSMC Q3 2026 results and ASML order commentary, as recorded in Sampo–Gemini morning debate, 2026-10-16

Summary

TSMC guided Q4 to $52.3-54.3B, up 14% quarter on quarter, held capex at $60-64B and pointed to higher 2026-28 capex. ASML was recorded as sold out for 2027-28, with prepayment-backed talks for 2029-30 orders.

A/B Impact Analysis

This is support from the very top of the compute supply chain. Multi-year demand being locked in at both the foundry and lithography layers, with prepayments attached, matches the self-reinforcing structure of Scenario A. From Scenario B, such concentrated ordering can also mark a cycle peak, so cancellations or deferrals are the follow-up check. Within the current record, confirmation signals outweigh deferral signals, hence the high weight.

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